Sahrish Naqvi1*, Tahira Ruby1 1Institute of Zoology, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan *Corresponding author’s email: sahrishnaqvi15@gmail.com Received: 18 May 2026 / Revised: 30 August 2026 / Accepted: 15 September 2026 / Published Online: 01 October 2026 Abstract Rapid changes in climate patterns may lead to the risk of extinction of many faunal species in Pakistan. These effects of climate change would lead to a shift and contraction in species distribution ranges and a shift in appropriate habitats, which could impact resource availability and biological conditions. According to Birdlife status, four avian raptor species Haliaeetus leucoryphus, Neophron percnopterus, are endangered, while Falco chicquera, and Aegypius monachus, are near threatened but are resident species of Pakistan. In the present work, we used species occurrence records from GBIF, while present and future climate variables from worldclim. Using two future peak scenarios of carbon emissions rcp 4.5 and 8.5, as well as two circulation models for 2050 and 2070, we used the MaxEnt model to simulate the current (normal range for 1980-2019) and future (up to 2050 and 2070) species distribution. The results depicted a prominent impact of bio17 (precipitation of driest month) on H. leucoryphus, for N. pecnopterus, the impact of bio15 (precipitation seasonality) was prominent. In contrast, the impact of bio8 (wettest quarter mean temperature) was recorded on F. chicquera and A. monachus. Overall, the findings demonstrated that under two climate scenarios, the distribution of species was projected towards the latitudes of the north and the altitudes of the east, resulting in habitat destruction and a shift towards higher altitudes. Our study provides useful information to policymakers and conservationists to justify the effect of change in climate on four raptor species in Pakistan. Keywords: Climate effect, RCPs, Climate models, Predicted variables, Avian raptors of Pakistan | 
