Imran Shauket1, Sikandar Ali2,3*, Rao Husnain Arshad2*, Muhammad Adnan Shahid2,3, Hafiz Muhammad Safdar Khan1, Muhammad Amin4, Kashif Mehmood2, Shahbaz Nasir Khan1, Zulfiqar Ahmad Saqib5, Lubna Anjum2, Muhammad Safdar3,6
1Department of Structures and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
2Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
3National Centre of GIS and Space Applications (NCGSA)-Agricultural Remote Sensing Lab (ARSL), University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
4Institute of Geo-information & Earth Observation, PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi 46300, Pakistan
5Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
6College of Safety Science and Engineering, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an 710054, China
*Corresponding author’s email: sikandar_ali@uaf.edu.pk; husnain.arshad@uaf.edu.pk
Received: 29 May 2026 / Revised: 12 October 2026 / Accepted: 04 November 2026 / Published Online: 09 November 2026
Abstract
The groundwater resources of the Ravi River Basin are facing increasing pressure due to agricultural, domestic, industrial and urban water needs. However, groundwater changes in this basin have not been assessed using a spatially distributed modelling approach. This study used MODFLOW-NWT to assess spatial and temporal fluctuations in groundwater levels across 12 districts of Punjab, Pakistan. The model integrated land-use, soil, climatic and groundwater data. The aquifer was divided into three layers of 80 m, 120 m and 300 m, using a grid size of 6 km × 6 km. Data from 739 piezometric wells (2000–2019) were used for model calibration and validation. During calibration, R², Pearson r and NSE ranged from 0.77–0.84, 0.77–0.84 and 0.91–0.95, respectively. During validation, the corresponding values ranged from 0.89–0.92, 0.98 and 0.89–0.92, respectively. The results indicate that groundwater levels declined at an average rate of 0.5–1.0 m/year, reaching 2–3 m/year in some areas, particularly around Lahore, Sheikhupura, Faisalabad and Pakpattan. Sensitivity analysis using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) package evaluated the influence of horizontal (Kh) and vertical (Kv) hydraulic conductivity, recharge (RCH), specific yield (Sy) and specific storage (Ss). Groundwater depletion was spatially variable and particularly significant in areas with high agricultural and urban water demand. Although the 6 km × 6 km grid supports regional assessment, it may not capture local groundwater variations. This quantitative assessment can support regional groundwater management by identifying depletion hotspots and informing targeted interventions, including rainwater harvesting and managed aquifer recharge, to improve groundwater storage and recovery.
Keywords: Aquifer recharge, Groundwater depletion, Groundwater modelling, Hydrological assessment, Managed aquifer recharge, Water security
